Football analyst and odds expert Mark Stinchcombe provides his insights on the upcoming Champions League clash between RB Leipzig and Aston Villa this Tuesday.
- Leipzig look a big price again
- Youthful German side have high ceiling
- Villa look opposable at the odds
RB Leipzig Vs Aston Villa: A Champions League Clash
Why Leipzig Deserve More Credit
At the prices, I want to back RB Leipzig again. Why? Sometimes I think the market struggles to price up European games because the teams don’t play in the same league.
The Odds: Slight Favourites For Leipzig
Here Leipzig are only being made very slight favourites at 6/4 with Aston Villa at 8/5. I think Leipzig are underrated again.
Leipzig’s Recent Performances And Odds History
If we look at the odds since the Celtic debacle, Leipzig have been 4/6 at home to Borussia Monchengladbach, 4/5 at home to Wolfsburg and 13/10 at home to 2nd place Eintracht Frankfurt, who’s lofty position is fully merited with them ranking 3rd based on expected points.
The Volatility Of A Youthful Team
I take on board data wise Leipzig haven’t been great – they themselves rank only 10th in the Bundesliga based on expected points – but I think there’s huge volatility to their performances and thus results given their youthful side.
Rising Stars In Leipzig’s Squad
For example, starting with where they are most dangerous upfront, they have Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda who are only 21 and 24 respectively.
Transforming Through Transfer Business
Then you look at their transfer business this year you can see the huge change in age. Out went Timo Werner (28), Angelino (27) and Emil Forsberg (33). In came Antonio Nusa (19), Arthur Vermeeren (19), Lutsharel Geertruda (24) on top of the likes of Castello Lukeba (21) and Nicolas Seiwald (23) from last summer’s window where they also let Konrad Laimer (27), Christopher Nkunku (27) and Alexander Sorloth (29) go. They have the 3rd lowest average age in the Bundesliga.
Bouncing Back After A Setback
After the 5-1 hammering at home to Wolfsburg, the players rallied around manager Marco Rose and have bounced back with a 3-0 win against the aforementioned Frankfurt and 2-0 win at Holstein Kiel.
Aston Villa’s Questionable Away Odds
Looking at Aston Villa’s closing odds away from home in comparison – the best and most accurate representation of a team’s true or correct price – makes for interesting reading.
Villa’s Away Record Raises Doubts
They were 13/5 at Tottenham Hotspur – are Leipzig not at least in the conversation of being somewhere near Spurs’ ability? 8/5 here vs the 13/5 there is a big shift.
Comparisons With Fulham And West Ham
Villa were a bigger price at 2/1 away to Fulham – would I back Fulham as favourites vs Leipzig on neutral ground? Absolutely not. Then the clincher is that Unai Emery’s men were 15/8 at West Ham!
Villa’s Poor Premier League Away Form
Away from home in the Premier League, Villa rank just 12th based on expected points and have already been beaten away at Club Brugge in the Champions League where they lost the expected goals battle 1.38 – 0.42, so I really think Leipzig should be much stronger favourites, at the very least 5/4 given at that price.
Stripping Away Home Advantage
Once you strip away home advantage, these two teams would be seen as equal in ability.
A Cautious Approach To Betting
I’m going to have a slightly smaller bet than normal given the unreliability around Leipzig’s consistency making it harder to know their true price.
Leave a Reply